deal or no deal

... is probably what counts for my favourite TV programme of the past year (outside of the old staples of Newsnight, This Week etc, obviously). Whilst working part time last year I relished being able to get home in time to see Edmonds back where he belongs - on the TV. The wilderness years for him must have been like Alan Partridge come true. I think that there are several factors that contribute to the show's success:

1. Noel appears to take the whole business very seriously indeed. And that's before you consider his later revelations on the subject of cosmic ordering and whatnot
2. Because the same contestants are on day after day, you start to care for their prospects and begin to tune in regularly just to find out how they get on. If you happen to work part time hours, and are therefore in a position to do so, that is. Which I am not, any more - just thought I should make that clear. But it's a pity, as I do miss being able to tune in.
3. There's something about the cult like faith in whichever complicated selection procedure the contestant has chosen that makes compelling viewing. In one episode the player simply chose his boxes from side of the studio to the other. This was as statistically valid as any other approach but regarded by Noel and all the participants as very much 'the wrong thing to do'. And so it happened to prove as he left with a paltry sum. I think there could be an analogy to make with the great equation of life - i.e. luck plays more of a factor than anything else, but that this doesn't stop people reading in all kinds of other variables. And when it works out particularly well or badly, suddenly the role of random chance is downplayed in favour of all kinds of other things such as 'courage' and 'how you play the game'. Just like life...
   

The big problem I have it that I find it difficult to articulate these arguments on the spot to people who are baffled by my fascination with a gameshow which does not depend on any kind of skill or aptitude at all. So I'm glad that Simon Singh (the popular science writer) had waded in with some lines for me to plagerise about game theory, probability and the 'psychology which leads to players making sub-optimal decisions'.